State gas — book-implied fair

Chart— three raw signals for the selected state: book-implied fair (solid, 5-min REST samples, own orders excluded), the GasBuddy panel print estimate (purple dashed, per sweep) and the naive HERE panel print estimate (orange dotted, hourly + 15-min sentinels). Tooltip adds the book fair's change vs the previous AAA print in cents.

Sweep table— the charted print date's trading-day panel sweeps: chained mean posted price (prior-day 20:30 anchor mean + common-station change — stations joining/aging out can't move it) and the mean per-station move vs that same anchor (US = the core-80 national panel).

HERE/OPIS table— same layout over the HERE Fuel Prices feed (pinned per-state rosters, `fuel_here_prices`): every run that saw new reports — the :04 hourly full-roster sweeps plus the :19/:34/:49 tier-A sentinel runs — as-of posted price per station by the feed's own report timestamp (stations not in a sentinel run carry forward from their latest report). Rows span the state's LOCAL calendar day (CA runs to 3:00am ET next morning — stations reprice until local midnight); chained mean and Δ are anchored at 12:00am LOCAL time (plain roster mean when the anchor snapshot is empty, Δ/moved blank). Panel print here is the HERE leg of the live chain (below) fed with the HERE panel's own Δ-since-midnight.

Panel print— each panel leg's projection of the charted print through the live per-state chain (since 2026-09-25 the asymmetric-loss "pure" chain, both signs, every hour): raw Δ-since-local-midnight → full-day move (per-hour multiplier + deadband, per state × panel × sign) → print (first-3c gain, excess gain, fall gain, prior-day carry). Fitted to loss = 3·over + 1·under, where "over" is an est whose magnitude exceeds the print's in the print's direction (or points the wrong way) — on a wave day we trade one side, so under-reading a real move only costs LIP. Stored per sweep row (`fuel_panel_sweep_stats.est_move_cents`, history re-projected 2026-09-25); the legacy symmetric chain is published beside it as `est_sym_cents`.

Avg panel print— the panel est the gasmm daemons see (same `gasmm_panel_est` as the redis panel-est publisher). Since 2026-10-04: w·chain print + (1−w)·HERE est, w per state — one pooled weight (0.35) until 10:00 local, the state's own weight from 13:00 (0.10 where the chain feeds cover little of the state, up to 0.80 where they cover most of it), linear in between; HERE alone when no chain run is under 45 min old. GasBuddy is out of the average (it was 0.25·GasBuddy + 0.75·HERE, 5c gate, until 2026-10-03) and stays a read. No separate sizing shrink — the legs' knobs carry the asymmetric loss. Identical in both tables at a given timestamp.

Book fair — the latest book-implied fair sampled at or before the sweep; blank until available.

Blended fair— the fair the state gasmm instances quote from: w(ET hour)·avg panel print + (1−w)·book fair, with the panel weight schedule 07:100% → 09:75% → 11:50% → 13:40% → 15:30% → 17:20% → 20:10% → 23:0% (panel-heavy while books are thin, book-heavy late). Same formula and same value in both tables (since 2026-09-04; the panel leg changed to the weighted average on 2026-09-07 and to the HERE + chain mix on 2026-10-04). Past dates are shown on today's formula and fits (the stored leg estimates are re-projected after each refit).

Chain panel— the first-party chain store-locator prices (Murphy, Circle K, Pilot, Love's, 7-Eleven/Speedway, Wawa, Kwik Trip, Costco, RaceTrac, Cumberland, Maverik, Meijer, Sam's, Casey's — `fuel_chain_*`, independent of OPIS) turned into a print-change estimate every 15 min by `scripts.fuel_daily.chain_shadow` (`fuel_chain_panel`). Raw Δ = the mean move of the state's chain stations so far today (latest regular price minus the previous-day close, clipped ±40c). Since 2026-10-01 the chain print = w × v2 + (1 − w) × v1, where w follows the state's chain coverage (the share of its HERE roster within 150 m of a chain station: 0 at ≤ 40 %, 1 at ≥ 60 %). v2 = the state's own pass-through slope (fitted on its past chain moves vs the prints, refitted every run) × the raw Δ projected to the day's end — falls only, rises use one damped slope, moves beyond 8c count half; early in the day it leans on the previous print change. v1 = per chain, mean move × the chain's share of the state's stations × a gain fitted on HERE's per-brand history, plus 0.36 × the previous print change. Mean price = the average posted regular price of the state's stations of the chains the run used (a chain the run left out is left out here too), as of the run — a level, not a print estimate (chain stations sit off the state average). Since 2026-10-04 the chain print is one of the two legs of the avg panel (with the HERE est, per-state weight); avg panel = that live est at the same moment.

Printed— the charted date's actual AAA print, with its change vs the previous day's print in cents; blank until published.