Fuel prediction — gas & diesel
Pass-through model fair vs live wholesale (NYMEX HO nearby), journalled every tick to fuel_fair_ticks; bucket probabilities for the event trading now; GasBuddy panel sweeps (gasbuddy_panel_stats). Docs: docs/aaa-diesel.md.
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Fair vs wholesale (2026-08-13, hover to inspect)
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Bucket probabilities — today's event
| Strike | dist (¢) | p (YES) | Class | YES bid | NO bid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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GasBuddy panel sweeps — retail day 2026-08-13
Balanced-panel move vs the day's midnight-ET baseline; vs 24h = same stations vs their price 24h before the sweep (comparable across sweeps); print est = 0.70 × mean (3-point calibration). Sweeps at 00–04 ET are the prior day's end-of-day read.
| Sweep (ET) | n | moved | up / down | breadth ↑ | mean | vs 24h | trim10 | med ↑ | med ↓ | fresh | print est |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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