Fuel prediction — gas & diesel

Fair vs wholesale (2026-10-11, hover to inspect)

Bucket probabilities — today's event

GasBuddy panel sweeps — retail day 2026-10-11

Balanced-panel move vs the day's midnight-ET baseline; vs D−1 20h= same stations vs their price at the previous day's 20:30 ET anchor; print est = ref20 × 18/(h−2), final at the 20:00 ET sweep (the blend formula). Sweeps at 00–04 ET are the prior day's end-of-day read. real = the D+1 AAA print the sweeps predict: settled value for past days, Kalshi-book-implied expected settle (wsrecv Redis mirror) while the event trades.

HERE/OPIS national diesel panel — retail day 2026-10-11

The 11 HERE state rosters' diesel postings pooled (station-weighted) into a national panel: mean change vs each state's local midnight, breadth = share of stations moved more than 2c. US6 = CA FL IL NJ NY TX (data since 08-31); US11 adds GA NC OH PA WA (since 09-03) and was the roster the diesel fair read 09-09 → 10-04 (US6 is 22% Florida by station and over-read the 09-08 Florida wave: +6.2 vs US11 +4.7, print +4.1; since 10-04 the fair reads the HERE roster + chain rows of the tables below — US26 since 10-11). Print est = 0.7·move/c(h) + 0.7·prev final (refit 09-09 on US11; the AAA print lags the posted-price panel by about a day — docs/aaa-diesel.md §HERE national diesel panel).

The HERE rosters as the state waves were added: US16 = US11 + AZ MA MI TN VA (since 09-11), US21 + CO MD MN OR SC (09-19), US26 + CT IN MO NV WI (09-25). mean = mean posted diesel price now over the stations in the diff; diff= each station's price now minus its last record of yesterday in its own local time, averaged (only reports already fetched at the sweep count); day est= the diff scaled to the whole day by the roster's completion curve; print= the day's AAA print + a·day est + b·yesterday's whole-day move (). The last row ("close") is the whole-day move once every state's local day is over. Stored by a 15-min task. Since 2026-10-11 the diesel fair's panel leg = 0.30 × the US26 print est + 0.30 × the chain sweep's (table below) + 0.40 × the GasBuddy est(US21 → US16 → US11 when US26 has no row; a missing leg hands its weight to the others; 10-04 … 10-11 it was 0.45 US16 / 0.30 chain / 0.25 GasBuddy — the fair chart above shows every day on today's weights). docs/aaa-diesel.md §Fair panel leg = HERE + chain + GasBuddy mix.

Diesel chain sweep — retail day 2026-10-11

The chains' own posted dieselprices (Circle K, 7-Eleven / Speedway, Marathon / ARCO, Murphy, Casey's, Wawa, RaceTrac, Kwik Trip, Maverik, Pilot, Love's …; every US state they post in, since 09-28): per station the last stored price minus its last stored price before its local midnight, averaged; only chains polled successfully today and within 6 h. Same four columns (); the per-chain column lists stations and mean move of the largest chains.